We are now nearly 6 months after someone in China somehow contracted and shared the Covid-19 virus. We have watched as each country has fallen like a domino to this invisible force. Nearly every country has gone through the same stages. Denial that the virus would have much impact, followed by a rapid run-up in cases and a state of uniform fear with progressive reductions in liberty as health systems are strained, followed by anger and depression about the financial toll, and now an attempt to try to return to some degree of normalcy.
What does this mean for the future? Unfortunately, my magic 8 ball tells me the future is uncertain. But, I am going to make a few predictions. I expect within 4 weeks there will be a bump in positive cases. We will see an increase in ER visits but a drop in deaths. By 4 weeks from now we will have at least 1 recommended therapy for treatment and ventilators will not be used very much. I predict that in 6 weeks some states will reverse openings and others will not, creating a confusing array of responses.
I think the public will fight against tightening again and businesses will fight to stay open. I also predict that the rate of infection will begin to fizzle out by the end of July as the number of people already exposed will be large enough to slow the spread. In September we will have a vaccine available to healthcare workers and by December it will be recommended for everyone.
By late fall we will begin to learn that the mortality rate from this virus is .01-.05% of people exposed. The final US mortality rate will reflect this as 30% or 130,000,000 people are infected by the end of the year with a total of 200,000 deaths. I also predict that when the entire number of people who die in this country regardless of cause, which has averaged about 3,000,000 a year the past few years, the number will only have increased by about 50,000 total or statistically insignificant.
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