Covid Dreams

I'm willing to bet I'm not the only person who's dreams have been hijacked. I don't believe I have had a night of restful innocent sleep in over 2 months, my dreamland constantly recycles the loss of freedom in this new era with ever more stranger dream images. I'm sure we could all combine our dreams into some dystopian dream movie.

As I was talking about my endless restless nights with my wife,  Cynthia, I began to wonder about previous generations. I'm sure that we are not the first to have our blissful sleep disrupted. I even recall several weeks of nightmares after 911. But, I bet my disrupted sleep doesn't compare to when my grandparents woke up on December 7, 1941 to find that Pearl Harbor had been attacked. The life disruption of sending children off to war, nightly black out curtains, rationed food and fuel, must have created intense material for the dream world. The loss of freedom and complete life disruption lasted over 4 years and I imagine many people didn't have restful sleep for years.

I then thought about people who were taken from their homes, loaded in cattle cars, giving up all of their possessions to be transferred to concentration camps. I wonder if their minds could ever comprehend the losses they endured. Did their minds ever relax? Or was the night time just as terrifying as the day?

I completely understand the incredible good fortune of my life, I was raised in a stable, warm, loving household, I have pursued my dream career, I am surrounded by a wonderful spouse and children. I have a beautiful home and good friends. In many ways I am ashamed of this subconscious mind presenting these nightly terrors. I have dealt with greater challenges in my life. During my residency I worked 100 hour or more weeks, cracking chests, doing CPR, placing lines, repairing wounds, in battlefield conditions in inner city Detroit in the midst of the crack cocaine wars and the AID's crisis. This hardly compares, yet nightly my mind returns to it's own battles.

I hope this insanity ends soon, but I fear this is only the beginning of a marathon. I write this hoping for my mind to settle down but more to share with those who read this. If you are having Covid dreams you're not alone and hopefully sweet dreams are nearby.

End of the beginning or Beginning of the end?

 We are now nearly 6 months after someone in China somehow contracted and shared the Covid-19 virus. We have watched as each country has fallen like a domino to this invisible force. Nearly every country has gone through the same stages. Denial that the virus would have much impact, followed by a rapid run-up in cases and a state of uniform fear with progressive reductions in liberty as health systems are strained, followed by anger and depression about the financial toll, and now an attempt to try to return to some degree of normalcy.

What does this mean for the future? Unfortunately, my magic 8 ball tells me the future is uncertain. But, I am going to make a few predictions. I expect within 4 weeks there will be a bump in positive cases. We will see an increase in ER visits but a drop in deaths. By 4 weeks from now we will have at least 1 recommended therapy for treatment and ventilators will not be used very much. I predict that in 6 weeks some states will reverse openings and others will not, creating a confusing array of responses.

I think the public will fight against tightening again and businesses will fight to stay open. I also predict that the rate of infection will begin to fizzle out by the end of July as the number of people already exposed will be large enough to slow the spread. In September we will have a vaccine available to healthcare workers and by December it will be recommended for everyone.

By late fall we will begin to learn that the mortality rate from this virus is .01-.05% of people exposed. The final US mortality rate will reflect this as 30% or 130,000,000 people are infected by the end of the year with a total of 200,000 deaths. I also predict that when the entire number of people who die in this country regardless of cause, which has averaged about 3,000,000 a year the past few years, the number will only have increased by about 50,000 total or statistically insignificant.