Why? Many of you have read the first few chapters of my story "Virestorm" about a nefarious plot to trigger an outbreak of Avian flu. If that seems frightening the possibilities with Ebola are truly staggering.
Let's start with a few statistics. As of 9/30 7400 people contracted the disease and 3439 have died. We have now had our first confirmed case on US soil and Spain has had their first. The disease has a 50% mortality and is transmitted in blood, urine, saliva, sweat, and feces. The dormant period is up to 3 weeks and you are contagious when you have initially mild symptoms of fever, sore throat and cough.
OK, big deal, the CDC says they will have no trouble containing the outbreak in Texas monitoring the 50 exposed people. Texas doesn't scare me, what scares me is what Texas tells me could happen.
Give me a moment to expand. I was talking to a biomedical expert 2 weeks ago and she confirmed the virus can live on soiled clothing for at least a few days. I can think of lots of ways trouble could happen. When I was talking to a friend about it on Saturday he thought I was describing a new Clancy novel.
So, let's imagine there is an evil person or group who wants to cause terror and disruption. How might they do it and could the plot already be in action? Maybe our person in Texas was just a test to see if the virus could make it into the country and to see how well we responded. If that's the case the hospital failed the initial test as Mr. Duncan was sent home contagious. During the next few days he was in contact with many people. But, the scary aspect of this is how easily he made it here and once ill was able to circulate among the population.
What would happen if someone was able to gain access to tissue and bring it here? I don't think the idea is too farfetched. I was just reading that in the poorer areas of Africa people are tossing infected bodies into the local rivers for disposal. How hard would it be for a Jihadi to grab one of these bodies and take a chunk of diseased tissue and put it on dry ice or liquid nitrogen and manage to bring it in to our country?
Once here he could walk through a crowded subway rubbing infected tissue onto unsuspecting hands. I'm sure someone would end up rubbing an eye or nose or mouth and perhaps this person would start their 21 day incubation period. What happens when the unsuspecting person becomes contagious with typical flu symptoms a few weeks later and is transmitting the virus to others on public transportation? Imagine a few people doing this in a few major cities. If Jihadists are willing to blow themselves up I believe they would be willing to die of a tragic disease to achieve their aims.
How disrupted would our economy be when hundreds if not thousands of people became either infected or placed in quarantine? We can't forget that taking down two office towers and killing 3,000 people resulted in a severe impact on our nation and economy.
You can even twist the plot a little. Our own president was riding an elevator a few weeks ago with an uncleared contractor with a bad history and was carrying a weapon. Maybe the sloppy secret service could allow someone with an Ebola tainted cloth come in contact with the President or a family member or member of the cabinet. Maybe aim low and just infect a US congressman.
I think that if 9/11 caused us trouble we have no idea how bad it could really be. Forget about grounding airplanes. If we had a well orchestrated attack we would be shutting down transportation, schools, sporting events. The list goes on.
You are reasonable if you ask if there is anything we can do. I don't think we can completely prevent something this evil but I think we better be prepared. Personally, I am beginning to think that anyone traveling from those areas of Africa should be placed in 21 days quarantine. And I'm not afraid of us forfeiting some civil liberties for the next few months particularly regarding monitoring of telephone and electronic communications. I also suggest being prepared to park yourself and your family at home for at least a few weeks if something does happen.
That reminds me, I better tell my wife to buy some more canned goods!
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